Robert Crohan/Staff Writer
I have to say, the Democrats have come a long way since 2016.
Donald Trump seemed unstoppable. His election had conservatives and ex-liberals rejoicing over their blow to the establishment. His economy was strong, and Democrats were, in the words of my fellow staff writer Fernando, “pretty much failing at everything.” Trump did very well in driving the left into contradicting itself in debates over immigration, race and jobs. No matter the insults, the crimes, the failed policies, or the environmental destruction, nothing could bring this guy down.
And then came 2020.
Republicans in power have downplayed the impact of COVID-19 and systemic racism, while the left has largely taken these issues to heart. Although I still feel that Joe Biden would have defeated Trump in the election had the pandemic never happened, the chaos of 2020 appears to have helped him significantly. And it goes beyond defeating the incumbent.
I believe that Joe Biden will win in an electoral college landslide, the Democrats will retake the Senate, and the Democrats will build on their House of Representatives majority. In other words, a blue tsunami is coming.
The last time this happened was 2008, when Barack Obama and the Democrats, coming off the Great Recession, rode frustration over GOP economics to all three chambers of Congress. I would argue that this election is more similar to 1980, where an unpopular incumbent who mishandled a number of crises (Jimmy Carter) was dethroned by an older but charismatic challenger (Ronald Reagan).
Consider that President Trump has never risen above 50% in popularity and is the first president to achieve this milestone. He has also never led Biden in nationwide polls. In the months since COVID-19 became a pandemic, Trump and broader Republican polling has taken a hit in places where it was never expected.
If I told you in 2016 that I think Democrats would win North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Texas in 2020, you would laugh in my face. But today, Biden leads in the former three and the latter is effectively a tossup. The shifts in some of these states are dramatic. Keep in mind that Texas voted for Mitt Romney by sixteen points less than a decade ago. Some current projections have Biden winning over 300 electoral votes.
And it’s not just the swing states: red states, too, are narrowing up. Previously “safe” Alaska, South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi and Louisiana are now “likely” for Trump.
The Senate has jumped left as well. Democrats are favored in previously Republican-leaning Iowa and North Carolina, Montana and both of Georgia’s races are toss-ups, and Lindsey Graham (SC) is (mercifully) just hanging on by a thread.
The Republican Senate has lied to the American people while showing no remorse for the millions of struggling people they were elected to represent.
This is made possible not only by strong policy proposals in a time of inaction, but also inspiring candidates. Jaime Harrison (SC) went from looking for quarters in his couch to becoming a millionaire. Raphael Warnock (GA) is the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. attended service, and can counter the hate emanating from much of the religious right. Mark Kelly (AZ) is a former astronaut and activist for gun control in the gun-heavy west.
Trump has inspired new movements and activists to seize every issue from climate change to women’s rights. Their efforts to get out the vote paid off in 2018, as record numbers of young voters turned out, and 2020 will be even better.
There is concern that the polls are not accurate because of 2016, where Hillary Clinton led Trump. However, pollsters have made adjustments, and Biden’s lead is nearly insurmountable in Rust Belt states, pushing Trump to surrender them in advertising.
From personal observation, I have noticed change. I live in Lake County, which has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1944. I saw many Trump signs and flags in 2016, and only one sign for Clinton. This year, signs for Biden and Trump are about equal in number. Even though Trump courts Florida rather obsessively, Biden is slightly favored to win here.
And despite signs that Trump has strengthened his standing with Hispanic Americans, and retains support from Vietnamese Americans, Biden’s inroads elsewhere in the state, especially among retirees and seniors, are pushing it in his favor.
That represents a key change: the suburbs and white voters are moving away from Trump. Democrats have made historic gains among college-educated white women after they switched between the parties numerous times since the 1990s. And ultimately, these constituencies vote in greater numbers than others that Trump may have gained. Just look at the 1996 election: despite Bob Dole overperforming among voters of color, Bill Clinton did well with white voters and won the election in a landslide.
Democrats, however, remain concerned. The GOP is getting desperate about their prospects and are pathetically reverting to voter suppression. Texas, for example, is only allowing one ballot drop-off location in each county. And Trump has ruthlessly attacked mail-in voting when he himself is voting by mail. However, people are working day and night for a fair election, and the fact that early and mail-in voting is breaking records in swing states is quelling fears that the election day could become an election week or month.
All in all, Trump and the GOP should be very concerned. I honestly do feel bad for my conservative friends and family members and I hope a Biden victory does not crush their spirits, but rather uplifts them to campaign for Republicans in the future.
But the American people at large have had enough of Trump’s deceit. The Republican Senate has lied to the American people while showing no remorse for the millions of struggling people they were elected to represent. If they keep up this childishness, and if Joe Biden continues to prove he has the experience, knowledge and heart to be a good president, they can expect an uncomfortable loss in November, potentially paving the way for a very progressive decade.
Put on your goggles and life vests, because this wave is going to crash.
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