Georgia Is Now A Blue State. What Does That Mean For the Rest of the South?

Robert Crohan/ Staff Writer

Our elections are certainly interesting.

I enjoy studying electoral politics, and observing the changes in states’ voting patterns over the decades. Indeed, as I have argued previously, certain issues, trends, or candidates can drive an otherwise competitive state to one side or the other. Shifts happen, but nothing like what we saw a few short months ago. A shift of this magnitude is rare and produces a lot of takeaway commentary as to how it happened and what it means for the collective southern US, including us in South Florida.

So, what happened? Georgia, once a strongly Republican state, has turned blue. No, not a one-time blue but normally light red like North Carolina. Not a one-Democrat, one-Republican in the Senate state like Florida was for many years. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. This comes after Donald Trump won Georgia by six points in 2016.

Not only that, but the two US Senators are a black pastor and a millennial Jew. For Democrats, it’s a miracle.

Amid much talk of a “New South,” will the entire region undergo the same swing left? For now, absolutely not, but Democrats have reason to feel empowered. It depends on the state.

Georgia, in some respects, stands out from its neighbors like a sore thumb: it has experienced mammoth population growth, especially in the Atlanta area, as well as climbing diversity with a growing Hispanic and Asian American population. It is a rare state where the share of black voters is increasing rather than remaining stagnant. Much like Florida and North Carolina, this has created an environment for competitive statewide races.

Most southern states are on the periphery of relevance, though. Louisiana lost an electoral vote in the 2010 census and Alabama might lose one after 2020s. These states and others are less urban, more rural, poorer, and, despite having a large share of black voters, heavily conservative. Arkansas was actually one of a handful of states to shift red in 2020.

Plus, Georgia has a larger share of urban voters than its neighbors, including North Carolina, explaining why the Tar Heel state has yet to actually flip. It would take tremendous outreach and voter registration to make most of these electorally thin states even nominally competitive. In resistance to a blue Georgia, these states’ conservatives may harden their commitment to Republican ideas. Which brings us to the nuts and bolts of how Georgia flipped.

Georgia has a very competent and effective state Democratic party. They seized the moment after Barack Obama narrowed the margins to begin a marathon to flip the state. The mind behind it all was Stacey Abrams, the 2018 Democratic nominee for governor, who went all-out in outreach, voting rights work and voter registration while fending off suspicion that she is a socialist. She told Georgians how her party can help improve their situation.

I hope and expect that liberal activists will work to embolden local candidates across the South. Many state House and Senate seats are winnable, especially with the right messaging on the most pressing Southern issues: the economy, racism, the environment, and gun violence. These efforts turned Virginia, another southern state, from dark red to dark blue in less than 15 years.

As Georgia burgeons, so too are three southern states: Texas, North Carolina, and Florida, and you might include Arizona. These states more so than others have moved left politically (except for Florida). There is talk of the Democrats winning these states in the near future even as they lose more of the Rust Belt. So, in a way, Georgia could be the first domino, telling Democrats that with a comprehensive strategy, the growing south is winnable.

Already, Democrats across the South have attempted to follow the Abrams model in changing the regional picture: Beto O’Rourke in Texas, Andrew Gillum in Florida, and Jaime Harrison in South Carolina.

This seems especially likely as Georgia becomes a showcase of the best and worst in both parties. Senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, both Democrats, promised $2,000 relief checks to Georgians and are increasing the pressure on Chuck Schumer, D-NY, and others to proceed. On the Republican side, new Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has drawn scrutiny for her activities during the January Capitol riot, exemplifying the somewhat militant pro-Trump wing of the party.

This comes after Atlanta was a very important city in 2020’s struggle for civil rights, and is the home of the Late Rep. John Lewis (D).

As for us here in Florida, the shockwaves will be felt. I have argued that Florida has become practically out of reach for Democrats unless the candidates are particularly strong in the state. With Georgia going blue, we might see disgruntled liberals hop a border north, or Georgia conservatives coming down here to leave the state’s inevitable Democratic policies. 

A growing Florida turning red has tarnished the universal paintbrush notion of growth and diversity automatically translating to Democratic votes. This is a lesson other state parties must heed.

This may only exacerbate Florida’s rightward drift and give us relief from the worst of campaigning. Georgia, it might be said, is the new Florida. Additionally, should Ossoff and Warnock fulfill their promises to Georgia and bring relief to us Floridians, with no negative effects on the economy, Florida may become more winnable for the Democrats in 2024. And such relief will allow Floridians to wipe their foreheads and exhale.

The warning must be heeded, though, that blue Georgia is not yet the California of the South. Biden’s win was among the narrowest of the election, and the Republicans could certainly bounce back come 2022 and 2024, especially with Trump out of the picture. Georgia likes old-fashioned conservatives like Mitt Romney and John McCain.

As a result, Democrats and other left-leaning groups will have to treat Georgia like a year-round 50-50 state. Stacey Abrams could very well lose to Governor Brian Kemp in 2022, although I expect her to win, and Ossoff and Warnock could face tough reelection bids.

Regardless, Georgia Democrats are smart enough to not fall into the trap of other state parties: I trust that they will keep up the hard work. As for our collective South, long-term trends and excitement favor the Democrats, while other states’ irrelevance threatens them. Ultimately, I hope every state gets its own Stacey Abrams. But for now, let’s enjoy our Alabama grits, play that Charlie Daniels Band and watch the show.

DISCLAIMER:

The opinions presented within this page do not represent the views of PantherNOW Editorial Board. These views are separate from editorials and reflect individual perspectives of contributing writers and/or members of the University community.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

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