How Long Until “Day Zero”: The Wait Until Zero COVID Deaths

Sergey Podlesnykh/Staff Writer

We’re nearing an anniversary of life in lockdown, and I feel like a five-year-old in the back seat of a rundown sedan on the multi-day family trip to Disney.

They told us to be patient, promised that the pandemic would end soon and assured that the vaccine would fix everything. We went through the denial of the pandemic, the anger over mandatory lockdown, the bargaining, the depression of isolation but still can’t quite accept this new reality. As I watch multiple experts give various prognoses of the pandemic’s end, I keep asking like an impatient toddler, “are we there yet?” How long till “day zero”, the day the US has no new deaths from COVID-19?

Just like the family trip, this pandemic seemed cool in the beginning: we got some time off to ourselves and caught a break from the hustle and bustle of this world. It got old faster than we could expect. We soon found ourselves longing for things we never truly appreciated: busy days at work, communication with other people and, surprisingly, ability to sit down at a restaurant without a mask and gloves on.

Almost a year of zoom sessions later, we can’t wait to break the chains of the pandemic and embrace our underappreciated pre-2020 routine. Joe Biden promised to have all American adults vaccinated by the end of May. Japan is adamant to start the delayed Olympics as scheduled. The vaccinations are underway, and the daily reported cases and deaths have been going down for the last few weeks. It seems like we’re nearing the end of this, but can we be optimistic yet?

As the history nerd I am, I turn to historic precedents in search for the clues. The Spanish flu of 1918 had three waves. The third wave was a phoenix emerging from the ashes of a seemingly defeated pandemic. It happened because the quarantine restrictions were lifted too soon amidst the decrease in the number of new cases. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Texas and Mississippi just announced the statewide rollbacks on COVID restrictions, all while the majority of the states had more new cases reported recently. Lesson #1: it’s not over till it’s over.  

On November 13, 2020 I watched Anderson Cooper, providing a chilling estimate of 438,000 deaths in the US by March 1, 2021. Back then, the election results were still being contested, coronavirus was largely used as political loose change and I made a note of the estimate, testing the Republican approach of “fake media hyping up the China virus.” It turns out, this estimate was rather moderate as the real numbers already surpassed half a million deaths in the US in February 2021. Lesson #2: harsh reality is often worse than our boldest predictions.

Despite the continuous attempts of repopulation on campus, FIU can already safely write off Spring 2021. We have yet to find out what Summer 2021 is going to look like. Perhaps, a combined or predominantly remote semester will be a safe transition to a hopefully normal Fall 2021.  I strongly believe that FIU will need to restrain the expectations of future improvements and consider the current number of new daily cases, daily deaths and the overall number of administered vaccines in Florida before we can return to “business as usual.”

There seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel, but we are not there yet. Dr. Fauci was hopeful to see “normality” by the end of 2021. “Normality” can be relative. For some, it’s an ability to go to the movies or a restaurant. For others, it’s an ability to go to work and provide for their family. I’m sure we can all agree that it would be “normal” to have two or three thousand fewer daily American deaths. You can call me frivolous, but I would consider it normal to see people’s smiles again without the imposed health risks.  

I’m getting increasingly tired in the back of that sedan. My promised Disney is the “day zero” – a day when the US will have no new deaths from COVID-19. It seems that every time we’re slowing down, and I hold my breath in careful anticipation, we pull up at the gas station to refuel for our trip. I really want the pandemic to end this year, but if I needed to wait a little bit longer to have Disney every day later, I would.

Our “day zero” is coming, perhaps even sooner that we expect. Let’s not get too excited. Stay disciplined, Panthers. Stay safe. We’re almost there. 

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The opinions presented within this page do not represent the views of PantherNOW Editorial Board. These views are separate from editorials and reflect individual perspectives of contributing writers and/or members of the University community.

Photo by Prasesh Shiwakoti (Lomash) on Unsplash